Anticipating Challenges and Opportunities in 2025

With new state and federal legislative sessions and a new federal Administration, the Association is charging ahead with plans for accomplishing long-stated goals and tackling new priorities. .


By Arianna Smith
Managing Editor
Transit California  

After much work and policy progress throughout 2024, the Association’s members have even more to anticipate in 2025: making new connections and building upon existing relationships with state legislators, new members in California’s congressional delegation, and new state and federal Administration officials. Work has begun to frame plans for new legislation, new reports, new committees and new court rulingsThe Association anticipates continued work to address short- and long-term consequences of the expected multi-year state budget deficit and changing federal priorities. 

With this anticipation, Association committee leadership approved the State and Federal Legislative Programs in November 2024, as well as a variety of internal and external policy updates. 

Here’s how far we’ve come, and a glimpse of what to expect in the new year. 

 State Legislation and Budget 

 In 2024, the Association’s advocates dedicated considerable time and resources to end the Governor’s spring spending freeze and ensure that the initial round of transit funds committed by SB 125 in 2023 made it out to member agenciesThe budget deal made in June 2024 updated the appropriation timeline of $4 billion in Transit and Intercity Rail Capital Program (TIRCP) funding to the initial $2 billion in Fiscal Year (FY) 2023-24, $1 billion in FY 2024-25, and $1 billion in FY 2025-26, as well as a shifting of funds from the General Fund to the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund across Fiscal Years 2023-24, 2024-25, and 2025-26.   

A top priority for the Association in 2025 is to preserve the terms of this deal: retaining the General Fund dollars appropriated in 2024’s main Budget Bill (SB 108) and transportation trailer bill (SB 109)With the recent experience of SB 125 funds being put at risk by the spending freeze, the Association will also proactively advocate that the Administration continue to release these committed funds on the statute-prescribed timelines. Additionally, the Association will be leading the transit industry’s engagement on Cap and Trade reauthorization, which will seek to extend the Cap and Trade program beyond 2030 and which may include discussions of changes to the program’s continuous expenditures. This work will be steered by a new Cap and Trade Reauthorization Subcommittee, established by the Executive Committee, and will involve significant coordination with our members, allied stakeholders, and the press. 

 Robust advocacy is a critical part of attaining the Association’s goals in 2025: the Department of Finance projected 2025 budget deficits in June 2024, and the Legislative Analyst’s Office currently predicts in its Fiscal Outlook report that “the state faces double-digit operating deficits in the years to come” and that “this year’s budget does not have capacity for new commitments, particularly ones that are ongoing.” 

With the reality of a multi-year state budget deficit looming, the Association is exploring existing funding flexibilityThis includes preserving the relative share of Cap & Trade revenues established in 2014, to further this effort, the Executive Committee Chair and State Legislative Committee have established a subcommittee to drive this effort which has already begun meeting. 

As for next steps on the budget, the State Constitution mandates that Governor Newsom release the 2025-26 proposed budget by January 10, 2025.  Throughout the spring, the legislative budget subcommittees will meet to discuss the Governor’s proposal as well as their own priorities.  By May 14, the Governor must release the May Revision to the proposed budget that incorporates new information about the state’s collected and projected revenuesThe Legislature must pass the budget legislation by June 15, and the Governor typically signs the main budget measure into law in the following daysAs transit agencies have come to expect, however, provisions of additional trailer bills with important funding and spending requirements often continue to be negotiated through the summer months and sometimes into the fall before they are signed into law. 

Also coming in October 2025 is the publication of the final report and findings of the Transit Transformation Task Force.  As part of SB 125, the state established the Task Force to develop, among other things, recommendations to structurally reform state transit funding and performance metricsAssociation members make up nearly half of Task Force members and are working hard, through our internal Transit Transformation Advisory Committee, to ensure that the report reflects transit needs for ridership recovery, long-term funding, and Transportation Development Act (TDA)The recommendations within the report may ultimately form the basis for future legislation and budget actions. 

The Association’s non-budget legislative and regulatory work will largely continue with previous years’ priorities, including protection of workers and riders, as well as securing clean energy progressThe Association’s Operations Committee, in coordination with our State Legislative Committee and transit labor, will continue to support advocacy for penalty enhancement for those convicted of crimes harming transit workers and passengers, tools to bar violent individuals from transit facilities, reducing unsafe or unruly passenger conduct, and best practices to address homelessness on transit systemsOther legislative strategies may includewill include the education of policymakers on experiences and real-world costs related to the deployment of zero-emission transit vehicles, CEQA exemptions for transit projects, and cost reductions in energy solutionsBeyond legislation alone and looking toward regulations, the Maintenance Committee will look to propose changes to the California Air Resources Board’s Clean Truck Check Regulation to relieve pressures on transit agencies.   

There will be several changes to the key committees that govern transit policy due to the exit of previous legislators and the election of new legislators, who were sworn into office during the first week of December 2024State legislative leadership has not yet announced the Chairs or Members of main committees that affect transit funding and policy; Association members can expect to see these updates in January 2025These include the Assembly and Senate Committees on Transportation, the Senate Budget Subcommittee No. 5 on Public Safety, the Judiciary, Labor and Transportation, and the Assembly Budget Subcommittee No. 4 on the Climate Crisis, Resources, Energy, and TransportationSome of the Chairs and members of these committees will remain in place from the 2023-24 session, but Association members should expect to see some changes. 

 Federal Legislative Program: Pursuing Priorities With the Returning Administration 

 With the upcoming transition in the Executive Branch, the Association is incorporating its experiences and knowledge from the first Trump Administration into its federal program. Additionally, the Association is looking forward to building on its existing relationship with the newly-elected U.S. Senator Adam Schiff and several new members of the California Congressional delegation. 

At the top of the federal priority list is addressing the twelve-year uncertainty of retirement benefits and funding: ongoing litigation and federal rulings related to California transit system access to federal funding while complying with the Public Employees’ Pension Reform Act of 2013 (PEPRA)Due to the most recent Appellate Court action to remand the case back to the District Court for dismissal, the US Department of Labor (DOL) may deny certifications of federal transit grants awarded to California transit agencies; however, uncertainty exists about what could happen next, partly due to the first Trump Administration’s original policy of certifying grants in the face of PEPRA-based challenges.  The Association will continue to take necessary action to ensure that funding remains unimpeded. 

Secondly, the Association will take on the significant work of developing principles for the  Surface Transportation Reauthorization Bill. This process will be geared toward informing funding levels for federal transit and rail programs as well as federal transportation policy. This work will be steered by the Federal Legislative Committee. Additionally, the Association is focusing efforts on the FY 2026 Federal Appropriations Bill to ensure that transit and rail funding matches or exceeds authorized levelsThese efforts include support for funds authorized in the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) that benefit California transit agencies, including for Federal Transit Administration formula programs, the Capital Investment Grants program, zero-emissions programs, and the maintenance of IIJA formula funding increasesThe Association will also advocate for the restoration of Highway Trust Fund solvency and oppose efforts to eliminate the Fund’s role in funding mass transportation projects. 

In the coming months, the Association will monitor nominations for the Department of Transportation and congressional Chairmanships of committees that decide transportation funding and policy. 

Association insider news for 2025 

With so much on the horizon, we encourage Association members to start planning now for the Spring Legislative Conference in Sacramento on May 7, 2025The event will once again be held at Kimpton Sawyer Hotel and will include a day of educational sessions, networking opportunities, and lobbying at the CapitolFor more information about this event, contact Erin Meyer (erin@caltransit.org). 

The Association extends deep gratitude to the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority (VTA) for hosting the annual conference in San Jose in November 2024The 60th Annual Fall Conference & Expo will celebrate the Association’s big milestone in Long Beach from November 5-7. 2025, with host agency Long Beach TransitTo register or to get more information, check out the conference website. 

The Association thanks its year-round sponsorsFor more information about cultivating top-of-mind brand awareness and accessing senior-level influencers, contact Association Business Development Director Kristian Ross-Patchin at kristian@caltransit.org to learn more. 

From all of us at the Association, we wish you a meaningful, productive 2025! 

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